DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/26 11:03
Grain Mixed at Midday
Mixed midday trade with corn and wheat near unchanged, soybeans lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are flat to higher; the Dow futures are up 10.
The interest rate products are are lower. The dollar index is 50 higher.
Energies are mixed with crude down 0.40. Livestock trade is mostly lower.
Precious metals are lower with gold down $6.60.
Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower in quiet midday trade with range bound
action continuing as we head towards the stocks report at the end of the week.
Broader yield results should continue to flow in this week with early results
mostly positive, with crop progress leaving conditions unchanged at 61% good to
excellent, 13% poor to very poor, 93% dented, 2% behind average, 51% mature,
13% behind average, and 11% harvested, 3% behind average. Ethanol margins
remain stable with corn and ethanol working sideways. Harvest pressure on basis
should increase but major moves will likely be limited with the west slowed by
rain. On the December chart support is now the 10-day and 20-day moving average
at 3.51-53 which trade is around at midday with $3.46 as the recent low below
that, and the recent $3.62 high as resistance.
Soybean trade is 4 to 8 cents lower with trade fading back to the next level
of support after the early-week weakness. Meal is $3 to $4 lower and oil is
flat to 10 points higher. Yield numbers as harvest progresses should give us
some direction ahead of the report with early results mostly good with the
western belt being slowed by heavy rains. South American planting should
improve into the beginning of October with some dryness in Brazil lingering and
Argentina fairly wet in the near term. The weekly crop progress report had
conditions unchanged at 60% good to excellent, 12% poor to very poor, 63%
dropping leaves same as average, and 10% harvested, 2 percentage points behind
average. On the November chart support is the 20-day at $9.62, with resistance
the 200-day at $9.78 and then the August high at $9.88.
Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with winter wheat testing the high
end of the recent range again before pulling back. The stronger US dollar could
limit upside if sustained, but Australian and Canadian concerns should add
support along with a need to secure acres in the U.S. Spring wheat could see
more position squaring with expected acre reductions on Friday. Rains in Kansas
should boost planting, with planting progress at 24%, 4% behind average
yesterday. On the December Kansas City contract 20-day at $4.43 is support the
50-day at 4.64 is resistance.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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